A bit of good political news I’ve heard today is that Hungary is about to elect a centre-right prime minister, shifting the current landscape dominated by Viktor Orban, who’s been in power for 16 years. This is a major development for a country that was drifting to the periphery of the European Union and creating all sorts of consternation. People have booted him out but replaced him with someone who is slightly less controversial overall but likely still to introduce tough lines on immigration, diversity, and inclusion. And that was the good news.
In other news, there is the fallout in relation to the collapse of the talks held in Islamabad between Iran and the US in relation to ending the Israel-US attack on Iran. What was supposed to be a ceasefire didn’t quite work out as Israel continued battering Lebanon, and in particular, in one 10-minute barrage it sent 100 missiles into largely civilian areas, killing hundreds in the process. Without sounding controversial, it seems one country is hell-bent on not making peace with its neighbours. Iran, on the other hand, has also been found wanting, it seems, as they are apparently insisting on keeping their nuclear programme intact, which the Americans don’t want. It is because the Israelis don’t want that. But if it goes back to all-out carpet bombing of Tehran again, it’s going to get pretty horrific. And for the Americans, it’s costing approximately $1 billion a day, with Tomahawks flying all over into the region, but then also with Iran not relenting on its drone and bombing campaign in relation to its neighbours, which are seen as hostile and effectively American proxies.
It was always going to be a tremendous challenge because America and Iran haven’t talked to each other since 1979. For Pakistan to jump into the picture to try and be the arbiter of this global challenge was a noble step, but one step too far. It was almost certain that it was going to fail. But the question is, what happens next? At the moment, there is no active bombing campaign, but it’s only a few clicks and WhatsApp messages away from starting all over again. And this will not end well this time. The US markets open tomorrow morning and they will be wobbly. Inflation is going to hit the U.S. economy again, and the macroeconomic indicators in relation to food prices and oil prices are not looking good for the US economy. It’s still relatively not out of the woods from its post-COVID limitations that it has faced.
The UK economy is in an even more precarious position because it’s so much more reliant on oil and gas from the Middle East, particularly from the Strait of Hormuz, which is not closed; it’s never been closed. It’s just closed to US vessels and any US allies’ vessels that travel through it. Southeast Asia is much more affected, and its interests are much more aligned to getting it back into full swing rather than letting this war between Israel and America against Iran play out its own natural course. But nevertheless, if China, for example, takes much more of a direct play in this, it will agitate the US. As we have seen from President Trump’s second term, he is more unhinged, imbalanced, misdirected, and mentally challenged than ever, surrounded by loyal sycophants who won’t challenge him, with their own incompetencies sorely exposed on a daily basis as well.
Many have dubbed the American attack “Operation Epstein-Fury”, but Melania’s speech last week raised more questions than it helped to answer. And it’s not really clear what the objective was. Unfortunately, it’s going to keep the Epstein issue on the radar for Trump far longer than he would have hoped as more revelations are released. Perhaps there is significant dirt to come out that was essentially being pre-empted by a speech that was meant to add confidence to the idea that she had nothing to do with Epstein or his associates. As in many corners of the social media landscape that are invested in exposing the scandal that is the Epstein files, many have said that Melania is not only in the Epstein files; she was also on the menu, which is a rather disparaging and uncomfortable remark, but perhaps not inconceivable in its actual implications. It’s an outrageous situation that a thousand children were trafficked and sexually exploited by some of the world’s most powerful men, and yet there is still no prosecuting any of them.
Back at home, I’m also still trying to get over the fact that over 600 arrests were carried out for people supporting the message that Israel is carrying out a genocide against the Palestinians and that they are willing to show their support for Palestine action, which has now been found unlawfully proscribed by the state. The law still remains in place to arrest anybody showing support for it or using any of its language, however. I think this will stick in the courts for some time if the government is driven on limiting Palestinian Action signage, expression, mobilisation, or activism. Many have said that this is a chilling environment where free speech has been curtailed. All people want to do is to raise concerns in relation to Gaza and the ongoing genocidal actions that have effectively left it currently half occupied by IDF forces, while the people of Gaza are still struggling to get back to any semblance of normal life. This is after having seen effectively 95% of the physical territory destroyed and all infrastructure wiped off the planet. And in the West Bank, there are militant settlers throwing Molotov cocktails into people’s homes, violently evicting people from their village and confiscating their properties, all supported by the state and its armed forces. A hard-right authoritarian ethno-nationalist cabinet still runs the government, mesmerised by a Greater Israel outcome, with Lebanon being attacked ceaselessly.
With all of this in mind, it is no surprise that I had a bit of a panic attack earlier on. I’ve been getting quite a lot of anxiety because of the insecurities I see everywhere but also because I’m constantly working on issues which are all about conflict, inequality, division, polarisation, extremism, and violence. It sort of gets to you after a while; it sort of creeps under your skin. You don’t really realise it. And in trying to not let it affect me by continuing to work on it intellectually, I’m not really processing the emotional elements necessary. I just completely and always intellectualise these kinds of heavily loaded social problems and social conflict narratives and issues. I don’t really know how to process it, because I feel powerless about being able to do anything about it. Useless. There’s no value in my existence if I can’t raise awareness, if not educate others about it, if not write about it, if not try to get others to think about it. And by doing this all of the time, I sort of forget myself. And I am back to square one – or, more aptly, square zero.