The results of yesterday’s snap parliamentary elections in the Netherlands have sent shockwaves across Europe. With 37 seats in the 150-seat chamber, the far-right, anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV), run by the controversial Geert Wilders, has emerged as the dominant force. This outcome raises the alarming prospect of an extremist party dictating policy in one of the European Union’s founding member states. However, the intricacies of Dutch politics and the nature of its multi-party system mean the election has not handed Wilders the clear path to power he sought. To govern, parties must build coalitions representing a majority of seats, but mainstream parties have ruled out working with Wilders. Thus, while the PVV will have the most seats, it may actually have little say as more moderate coalitions take shape.
Nonetheless, the substantial support for Wilders’ party and its hostility towards immigration and the EU indicate real disgruntlement among Dutch voters. For those who feel economically insecure and culturally adrift in an age of high immigration, Wilders’ nationalistic rhetoric resonates. Going forward, moderate parties must reconnect with these citizens through improved economic, housing, and other pragmatic policies while constructively addressing concerns around Dutch identity and community. Otherwise, the appeal of far-right populists seems poised to strengthen, with serious implications for the Netherlands’ cohesion and global position. The worrying rise of extreme nationalism in Dutch politics can still be reversed with thoughtful policies that speak to voters’ everyday needs while preserving openness and diversity. But traditional parties can no longer take core supporters for granted. This election is undoubtedly a wake-up call for pro-European politicians. The hard work to counter xenophobic populism must begin right now if the foundational principles at the heart of the EU project are to endure going forward.
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Today is the morning after the night before, and yesterday the great Dutch population came out to vote in a snap general election. It appears that the far-right PVV party, under the leadership of Geert Wilders, will win thirty-seven seats, giving it the majority in Parliament. However, the Dutch constitutional framework requires that there be at least four parties in the coalition, and many of the other parties have refused to work with him or join forces to form a government within, which means that it could well be the case that 2.25 million people voted for a political party that could have no voice in Dutch politics going forward. This would be a dramatic outcome given the huge shift to the right last night, rendering the voices who voted for the PVV silent and producing a centre-right government with all its distinct voices vying for recognition.
I have had a number of messages from friends and colleagues from the UK, Portugal, and all over the Netherlands commiserating, apologising, and confessing their embarrassment that their fellow Dutch men and women have voted in droves to uphold far-right ideals, which are not healthy for the nation. While it has a distinct role to play in taking forward its policies and practices as an independent nation of a large trading block that continues to convey advantages to members over those who remain outside of it, the PVV, with its distinctly anti-European, anti-Islam, and anti-immigration stance, inevitably leads to all sorts of concerns around tribalism, which ultimately in electoral politics means populist, authoritarian, hyper-nationalist, and potentially highly racialized outlooks on the part of the leadership and the policies that will invariably ensue. But this is still vastly different from becoming the reality that we all fear, as there will be many months of wrangling, deal-making, and negotiations to form a government, and in the past, this has taken a very long time indeed. So, this morning, while there was a degree of consternation as to the extent of the shift to the right, it is very much a protest vote. People are not happy with the status quo, and they have managed to buy in to the messages of the PVV because part of what they have said has focused on housing and the economy, which are important issues for most people, but they have not let go of their racist rhetoric in relation to Muslims and Islam, which has no balance in anything coherent intellectually or culturally because most people do get on and find a way together, but as a political football, it always generates the polarisation that is often necessary for parties to get over the winning electoral lines that they seek, and this is not just here in the Netherlands but throughout Europe in the post-war period.
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The results of the Dutch election, while concerning in some respects, do not necessarily portend a dramatic shift to the far right in the country. The intricacies of coalition politics and the Dutch constitutional system make it unlikely that Wilders’ PVV party will be able to implement its full agenda. However, the substantial support for the party’s anti-immigration and eurosceptic stance indicates real disaffection among parts of the electorate with the status quo.
Going forward, centrist parties will need to reconnect with voters around issues like housing, jobs, and the economy that directly impact people’s lives. They must also find constructive solutions to concerns about cultural change and national identity. If mainstream politicians fail to address these issues seriously, the appeal of far-right populists like Wilders will continue to grow, with unpredictable consequences for social cohesion and the Netherlands’ place in Europe. This election should serve as a wake-up call for pro-European, pro-immigration politicians and parties. They can no longer take supporters for granted or focus overwhelmingly on ideals at the expense of bread-and-butter policies. With thoughtful, pragmatic leadership and policies, the worrying rise of extreme nationalism can yet be reversed in this founding EU member state. But the hard work must begin now for this critical political project to succeed.