Andy Burnham has won a decisive victory, scoring hugely in terms of the vote in Makerfield, with the swing moving in Labour’s favour while the percentage who voted for Reform decreased even as their overall number increased. The tide has turned on Reform, and this represents a significant opportunity for Labour to get behind somebody with the ability to connect with local people — someone whose policies resonate with the needs of ordinary folks. That capacity is perhaps somewhat missing in the current regime, which has caused consternation, with significant numbers now calling for the Prime Minister’s resignation. His leadership stands in stark contrast to a moment that essentially looks set to anoint Burnham as the next Prime Minister, which could happen within weeks. This is a dramatic turnaround in events; when somebody only just returned to seated politics, they can be seen as a credible candidate for Prime Minister even before a leadership conference has been called. There is a reality here that suggests the current situation is weak beyond repair — the current leadership of the Labour Party looks profoundly diminished — and it is quite discerning to observe such a set of outcomes in today’s British politics.
British politics has seen significant numbers of prime ministers appointed, made to resign, and replaced quickly enough, only for the whole cycle to be repeated all over again. If Burnham does become Prime Minister, he would arguably represent the fifth Prime Minister within seven years — a dramatic set of events for any political establishment in any part of the world at this moment in history. So, what does it all mean for everyday politics? I think one of the most significant situations is perhaps that Reform peaked, as, for them, winning over the electorate now also means dealing with the emergence of an even more extreme hard right, with even more obnoxious ideas that carry no resonance at all and essentially perform another layer of deception. This is the deception that Farage was so well placed to introduce — a performance that offers no reform whatsoever, oddly enough — whereas the Restore party wants to restore a mythical vision of Britain that never existed in the very first instance. Indeed, we are living in very obscure times, and that detachment from the political establishment has become so normalised across the system.
What we need now is a significant set of policies to emerge in the light of the likely appointment of Burnham as Prime Minister — policies of genuine excellence that will appeal to a wide electorate and also rebuild society after years of damage. That damage is the result of austerity, inequality, stagnation, debt, and limited or no growth, alongside the ridiculous policy of Brexit, which has only done damage at every level of society and which needs to be utterly reversed. Anything that moves us beyond the absolute shock that Brexit has been is more than welcome, and Brexit is now fully revealed in the context of the fate that awaits Britain today if it does not change course. We need, too, a renewed sense of inclusion, diversity and respect for others, qualities that must be restored after they have been so deliberately eroded. They have been chipped away by various political actors and discourses that have taken hold among members of society, and this is precisely what looks so unusually problematic — the disarray, the polarisation, and the weaponisation of difference.
That weaponisation of difference, channelled through social media platforms, is wrong, and we are only ever a click away from creating real devastation. This is the deeper danger beneath the Burnham bounce: even a decisive, hopeful result does not, on its own, dismantle the machinery of grievance and division that has been built up over a decade and more. The opportunity Burnham represents is real, but it is also fragile, and it will mean very little unless it is matched by substance. A leader who can connect with people is necessary but not sufficient; what follows the connection has to be a serious programme that addresses the material conditions — jobs, housing, services, security — that have left so many communities feeling abandoned and angry. If Labour squanders this moment, the space will not stay empty. It will be filled, as it has been filled before, by those who trade in resentment and the restoration of myths. The Burnham bounce, in other words, is a beginning and an invitation, not a conclusion, and the question is whether it can be turned into genuine, lasting renewal.