The recently concluded 2024 general elections in Pakistan have left the country in a state of uncertainty and chaos. With no clear mandate delivered, allegations of rigging flying thick and fast, and violence claiming over a dozen lives, the hope for political stability and economic recovery remains elusive.
The results took everyone by surprise. Pre-poll favourite and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN party managed to secure only 75 seats, falling short of the 137 required for a majority. The projected dominance of the military-backed PMLN failed to materialise. Sharif himself suffered the ignominy of losing one of the constituencies he contested, raising serious doubts about his continuing electoral appeal.
Most analysts had written off the PTI party of the ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan. With Khan incarcerated, his party banned from using its electoral symbol, and media outlets critical of the military blocked, PTI candidates were expected to struggle. But in a shock outcome, the PTI managed to bag a leading 93 seats despite all the roadblocks placed in their path. Despite accusations of blatant rigging, analysts grudgingly admitted that Imran Khan’s personal popularity and anti-government sentiment had prevailed.
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), under the leadership of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, finished in a distant third place. With 54 seats, the PPP managed creditable gains without posing any real challenge for outright leadership. Political pundits believe the lacklustre PMLN showing and the surprisingly strong PTI performance took everyone by surprise, including the powerful military establishment that has historically played kingmaker and manipulated outcomes to suit its interests.
With no party even close to reaching the majority mark, the inevitable frenzied political horse-trading kicked off. The PPP swiftly announced its intention to back the PMLN and another small party to form a coalition government. Combined, this six-party alliance has over 150 seats—enough to get control of the all-important federal government and pitch PMLN leader Shehbaz Sharif as Prime Minister again.
Imran Khan, still in detention on controversial charges, has predictably cried foul. Lashing out of his prison cell, he labelled the PMLN-PPP post-poll partnership as “mandate thieves,” accusing them of massive rigging to deprive PTI of its rightful victory. Khan categorically ruled out any truck with these “corrupt parties” and instead opted to lead the opposition charge with the backing of religious hardliners and breakaway factions.
On the streets, the controversy and bitterness have already turned violent. Angry PTI supporters have attacked government installations and clashed with police while protesting the allegedly rigged results. Smaller parties like Jamaat-e-Islami have added their voice by voluntarily giving up hard-won seats due to misgivings over voting irregularities that disproportionately favoured PMLN candidates.
With emotions running high over stolen mandates, the clear absence of a level playing field before the polls has come back to haunt all stakeholders. Rights groups had warned of blatant pre-poll rigging even before voting day as regimes changed, governments fell, and new coalitions jostled for advantage over the past year. From forced defections of candidates and brazen gerrymandering of constituencies to the outright repression of the PTI’s campaign and the arrest of its charismatic leader, Imran Khan, there were red flags galore.
The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan lambasted “political engineering,” while international observers termed the contest neither free nor fair, with a military shadow looming dark over the entire electoral process. The controversial appointment of a clearly partisan Chief Election Commissioner drew widespread criticism, yet the polls went ahead under his inexperienced watch.
Unsurprisingly, then, administrative chaos, coordination failures, and inordinate delays in the vote count hindered the actual voting process, leading to loud claims of systematic result manipulation. With confusion still prevailing over exactly how many seats the major players have ended up winning, the credibility of the election now lies in tatters. On the most divisive of political battlegrounds, all sides continue to level vicious allegations.
Looking ahead, any PMLN-led ruling coalition with the slimmest of majorities already seems on shaky ground in the immediate aftermath of this bitterly fought poll. The ferocious Imran Khan-led opposition makes the political stability that voters have been desperately seeking through this election frustratingly elusive.
With the economy still in dire straits, tough decisions like the resumption of the IMF bailout package or difficult reforms to taxation, subsidies, and other structural issues will test the mettle of the new administration from Day One. And a strong PTI presence both inside and outside the National Assembly will vigorously resist unpopular steps, further eroding public confidence. Without political consensus cutting across party lines, any government will struggle to deliver good governance decisively.
Pakistan has a long history of unstable democratically-elected regimes punctuated by military takeovers and forced ousters. The disputed nature of the latest election makes it harder to break this damaging cycle. Until losing parties and groups feel they have a genuine shot at taking over leadership through a transparent electoral mechanism instead of violent agitations and coerced defections, democracy will continue to remain deeply vulnerable in this geopolitically pivotal nation.
The chaotic events unfolding after the February 2024 vote threaten to become one more lost opportunity for democratic traditions to take root in Pakistan as military-political power games undermine the popular will. With key players unwilling to engage in constructive parliamentary debate, the prospect of yet another period of political turmoil ending in authoritarian strong-arm rule cannot be dismissed just yet.